“If our politicians are to deliver effective Government for Northern Ireland it is essential that they understand the views and the mood of the people they are in power to represent. Through this Opinion Poll initiative, Inform Communications and the Belfast Telegraph aim to support the communications process by reflecting public opinion and hopefully sparking constructive debate on the key issues of the day” Linda Beers
MAY 2010
THE FINDINGS
The findings of this opinion poll should provide comfort for many of Northern Ireland’s sitting MPs and a degree of concern for a few.
The breakdown of respondents’ indicated voting intentions show the DUP and Sinn Fein virtually neck-and-neck on a 26% and 25% share of the overall vote respectively, followed by the SDLP on 17%, UCUNF 13%; the Alliance Party 7%; Independents 6%, the TUV 5% and the Green Party on 1% of the vote. In addition to the party’s popularity, these figures are greatly influenced by the number of seats each of the parties is contesting
For the DUP, sitting MPs Sammy Wilson, Gregory Campbell, Nigel Dodds, Jeffrey Donaldson and leader Peter Robinson are all ahead in their constituencies. The Alliance Party’s Naomi Long and UCUNF’s Trevor Ringland will surely be disappointed that despite the revelations surrounding the beleaguered First Minister, the voters of East Belfast seem to back their long-serving MP. In Upper Bann David Simpson is ahead of his UCUNF rival Harry Hamilton however the main threat to his seat is poised by Sinn Fein’s John O’Dowd who, according to our findings, is just 4% behind the DUP MP.
The North Antrim constituency is surely one of the most hotly contested in this election. While the poll shows TUV Leader Jim Allister to be 8% behind Ian Paisley Jnr the DUP would surely have been hoping for a far bigger margin at this stage in a seat that they have held for 40 years. This is the first Westminster election that the TUV have contested and their showing in constituencies such as East Londonderry and Lagan Valley, as well as in North Antrim, is surely significant.
In what is likely to be a disappointing set of polling results across the board for UCUNF, Mike Nesbitt, the ‘celebrity’ candidate in Strangford who is hoping to capture the seat vacated by former MP Iris Robinson, is 17% behind veteran DUP man Jim Shannon. The poll findings for the South Antrim constituency are a little more hopeful for the Conservative Unionist alliance with Ulster Unionist leader Sir Reg Empey just 6% behind the DUP’s incumbent William McCrea. In North Down, Lady Sylvia Hermon’s decision to quit the Ulster Unionist Party and stand as an Independent looks likely to be vindicated with the poll showing her comfortably ahead of her rivals.
For the SDLP, it looks likely that they will hold their 3 current Westminster seats with their new Leader Margaret Ritchie 17% in front of nearest rival, Sinn Fein’s Caitriona Ruane. For former Leader Mark Durkan things are a bit closer in Foyle where Martina Anderson of Sinn Fein is 11% behind. Alasdair McDonnell looks likely to retain South Belfast – his fortunes no doubt greatly helped by Sinn Fein’s decision to withdraw Alex Maskey from the race.
Sinn Fein’s current MPs Martin McGuinness, Pat Doherty, Conor Murphy and Leader Gerry Adams are likely to be returned comfortably. However the closest seat in the entire race features the Sinn Fein Agriculture Minister. In Fermanagh South Tyrone the poll findings are inconclusive with Sinn Fein’s Michelle Gildernew on 44%, just one percentage point ahead of Rodney Connor, the Independent ‘Unionist Unity’ candidate on 43%. Opinion polling is not an exact science with the minimum of a plus or minus 3% margin of error. Accordingly for us, Fermanagh and South Tyrone is simply too close to tell.
In conclusion, it is important to stress that this opinion poll is not intended to give an absolute prediction of how votes will be cast in Thursday’s General Election. Rather, it is snap shot of voting intentions during the period 22- 29th April when this poll was conducted.
LINDA BEERS, MANAGING DIRECTOR, INFORM COMMUNICATIONS